Thomas De Waal: Situation is dangerous: there is no alternative to diplomatic efforts (video)
Diplomatic efforts failed to establish a final peace a year after the four -day April war in Karabakh. There is a great likelihood that the military hostility between Azerbaijan and Armenia. “Azerbaijan is tempted to resume hostilities. This fact cannot be ignored. Despite the risk of resumption of hostilities, times have changed and new operations will not catch the sides unawares,” says Richard Giragosian, Founding Director of the Center for Regional Studies (CES). Both Armenia and Azerbaijan used the post-war period in order to arm themselves. This can result in large-scale operations. The opinion was expressed by experts participating in a discussion at the Institute for War & Peace Reporting. “There is a great danger that this time weapons of mass destruction might be used in the conflict. They will target civilian population. The Armenian side expressed desire to use Iskander [mobile short-range ballistic missile system]. In fact, Armenia is ready to surrender some territories but Azerbaijan has not expressed willingness to lead to renewal of the peace process,” said Ara Papyan, Head of the Yerevan-based Modus Vivendi analytical centre Thomas De Waal, a senior fellow with Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus region, admits that the situation is dangerous, but he says there is no alternative to diplomatic efforts. As a key effort towards reaching peace he said it is important that Azerbaijan implement the agreements reached in Vienna and St. Petersburg. “It did not happen, because some intentional errors were committed after the sides reached the agreement. Lavrov and Kerry did their best for the sides to sign the agreement, but everything was destroyed. Perhaps, diplomatic efforts were no enough. For example, Lavrov is a serious diplomat, but perhaps he does not work well enough towards implementation of the agreement," he said, citing the lack of international engagement as a key reason behind the failure to reach peace.
