Political scientist Stepan Danielyan says the quartet of non-governing forces in Armenia is ‘mined.’ At least two of the opposition forces are ‘under the control of’ the authorities.
“Dashnaktsutyun has deep ties with the ruling authorities. The Heritage has been transformed into an unclear structure, and you cannot make out who is who inside the party,” he said.
The expert says the Prosperous Armenia Party (BHK) can change the power all alone, only with backstage actions. “It will resemble a velvet revolution. For more drastic steps the BHK needs to cooperate with the Armenian National Congress (HAK).”
Mr Danielyan says the 12-point demands presented by the quartet to the authorities is an attempt to gain time; it is yet unknown what the opposition will do after September 30 when it becomes clear that the authorities have not met their demands.
“The non-governing forces have not planned their further steps. When you want to change power by force, you need to change your rhetoric accordingly, make concrete steps and prepare public with your calls. But we are witnessing none of these,” he said.
When asked why the opposition did not give the authorities more time if they really want to gain time, Mr Danileyan said the quartet is in the waiting mode. “They pin hopes on certain geopolitical developments, which may result in the change of power in Armenia.”
The political scientist says the failure to meet the opposition’s demands will not lead to early parliamentary elections. “Early parliamentary elections would mean a loss of power for Serzh Sargsyan. He will fight till the end, especially considering the fact that he has not been able to train a successor whom he can hand over power.”